Wednesday January 09, 2008

THERE'S NO NEED TO FEAR -- UNDERDOG IS HERE! Subscribers received a message from Team Rudy this morning:

When Rudy started running for President, he never planned to run a conventional campaign. Conventional wisdom and political pundits said he wouldn't be a viable candidate and he would be out of the race by last summer.

This is a new one on me. As far back as December 2004, Quinnipiac's polling showed 68 percent of Republicans wanted Giuliani to run for President. When he declared in February, USA Today/Gallup had him as the preference of 40 percent of Republicans; his nearest competitor, McCain, had 24 percent. Rasmussen had him leading the GOP field as late as December 10!

And till recently, Giuliani never lacked for high-profile support, nor press coverage befitting a front-runner. In March a Time magazine profile, while admitting Giuliani's "missteps" and that "the political rule book says a pro-choice former New York City mayor married to wife No. 3 cannot possibly win the Republican presidential nomination," added, "the political rule book has been stuffed into a shredder this year," and ended, "No news is good news for the Giuliani brand, and every quiet week that passes, the unlikely candidate is one week closer to rewriting the rules." In June Chris Matthews said Giuliani was "always there, right in your face, dealing with reality. I think that's what -- with all his aggravations and personality stuff and roughness -- I think that's what people are looking for: somebody who's clear and present and right there answering our questions..." Scour your own memory banks and tell me if the man known universally as Rudy! was getting a raw deal before his numbers began to plummet.

It doesn't matter; the naysayers, Team Rudy says, "were wrong. This election, much like Rudy, is not conventional. We're in uncharted waters with this new election calendar and winning requires a different strategy..." To spare you the details, it all comes down to Florida and Super Tuesday. "Recent polls have demonstrated that our strategy is working. A new Insider Advantage Poll of registered Florida voters has Rudy at 24%, a solid lead over his next closest competitor..."

I am compelled to also note an August 23 USA Today article about Giuliani's vigorous campaigning in New Hampshire (!), headlined, "Giuliani out to win a state 'made for him.'"

Now, I don't like the guy, but I can't say I blame him. As the recent Clinton victory in New Hampshire shows, there can be magic in a dose of underdog appeal, even for someone who is only an underdog by the most forgiving of definitions. But, typically for Giuliani, this current attempt to capture some of that appeal comes mixed with belligerence and a haughty certainty that everything is going according to plan. Team Rudy might want to rethink that approach. As the late Wally Cox showed us, real, or at least plausible, underdogs don't snarl.