Nobody should put much stock in my political predictions as I have a very mediocre track record – I’m only right maybe 50% of the time. But my instinct for the 2024 GOP nomination is Trump will win.
All of the establishment punditry (of which National Review is only one, and a diminished one at that) who are lining up behind DeSantis ignore some pretty important things about him, and about the GOP base. DeSantis is without charisma, he’s short, and he isn’t very nimble when he’s unscripted. He’s also hamstrung because like ALL of the potential GOP candidates, he has to walk the tightrope of not criticizing Trump too forcefully so as not to alienate TFG’s fervent supporters, while also trying to explain why he himself is the better choice. DeSantis *HAS* so far been successful with his transphobic and racist agenda, but I’m not sure he fully grasps how absolutely feral much of the GOP base has become.
Trump understands where the base is at – he was a major player in encouraging them to go there, after all -- and his message is full-on retribution: a restoration of white, male, Christian, heteronormative dominance just like DeSantis pitches, BUT with the important addition of retaliation and eradication of the “enemy.” I think on an emotional level that wins him the primaries.
Of course, I also think it will be pure poison in the general election. But as things stand, I think it gets Trump the nomination. And the GOP establishment, including the conservative pundits at National Review, KNOW Trump is poison in the general, which is why they are all lining up behind DeSantis. But it’s the primary voters who will decide, as we saw in 2016.
"I’m not sure he fully grasps how absolutely feral much of the GOP base has become."
Yeah.
The thing Trump does is make people angry enough to kill, and also provides the motive. As long as there's enough o'them inarticulated-rage-appliers-with-guns out there, Trump will enjoy the ride...
"Why do they hate us so much?" has become a cottage industry among liberal academics, and - as academics are wont to do - there's much searching for "root causes." Katherine Cramer, a Political Science Prof. at UW-Madison even got a much-read book out of it, interviewing rural Wisconsinites on why they hate "the M&M's" (not the insufficiently hot ones Tucker hates, they mean Madison and Milwaukee).
But what all this root-cause-searching misses is they hate us because they're TOLD to hate us. It's simple bigotry, and yes, racism too, but it's also just tradition, like how everyone in Wisconsin hates the FIBS. Stop looking for root causes, hate is its own reward. I'd hope at this point nobody's asking, "Gosh, wonder what the Jews did that made so many people hate them?"
Very true. Additionally, while I don’t like anti-Trump conservatives, one of them, Tom Nichols, has done Twitter threads where I think he touches on something important. Specifically, he talks about the successful MAGA types: the realtors, middle managers, tradesman, franchisees, etc. who are often earning six figure incomes and have a comfortable life, but feel a combination of restless boredom because their lives aren’t exciting, and/or feel like their asses aren’t being sufficiently kissed.
Just a stew of entitled resentment and ennui looking for an outlet. Rightwing politics tells them they are correct to feel this way, that other, lesser people (Blacks, immigrants, LGBTQ, uppity feminists) are demanding special privileges and unearned recognition. I think he’s onto something with this theory.
Yeah, I think was academics get wrong, not being generally angry people themselves, is that it FEELS GOOD to be angry. These folks aren't dragged into anger with great reluctance, forced to be angry by the outrageous behavior of the people they hate. They relish it, constantly look for more opportunities to be angry - and I know because I've felt that pull myself.
MAGA is an identity. It's branding. Somebody I know likes to wear golf clothing from exclusive courses and Audi logo merch. It's how he tells the world what tribe he's from. (The Asshole one.)
So, so much ink has been spilled about rural conservatives feeling neglected because the urban liberals "don't give them any respect". Like liberals are sitting around all day in their crowded, dirty, grimy, gridlocked and polluted ivory towers going "Hey! Who should we disrespect today?".
Yo, rurals, I got news for you! We TOO struggle with the daily challenges of living in what *used* to be fondly referred to as the "Land of the free, home of the brave(tm)" (GTFO, MAGA!) and we don't have a GD spare moment to contemplate their tender fee-fees. If life is so bad in American Ruralistan, how the hell do YOU have time to bitch about what us urbans might be thinking?
Now, let's be fair, if some NY Times reporter comes to the diner in your rural Wisconsin town and asks "What do you have against people in Madison and Milwaukee?" you can't be honest and say "I hate them as my father hated them, and his father before him, just as I hate Bears fans and drivers with Illinois plates on I-39." So you've got to have some answer (and "the Blacks" better not be part of it, thanks.) So this is what you get. "I'm sure they're thinkin' some stuff about us, yeah, that's it!"
It’s not just the urbans, rural conservatives hate the liberals next door even more. My rural town is in the middle of a dispute over the establishment of zoning, and the “natives” — some of whom are landed farm families going back generations — bitterly resent educated “newcomers”. You can live here 50 years but if you’re educated, no matter how humble your origins, you’ll be held in contempt, and assumed to be a classist snob. I am really starting to hate these people right back.
I don't think a lack of respect is the driver for them, though they're told that enough and they believe it. I keep thinking of that weird chant "Jews will not replace us" at that big Nazi rally. I think they feel shut out and replaced in popular culture. They look at movies and television, they look at the Oscar's and Grammys, they listen to any music not country (and even some of that, see Lil Nas X), and they see an army of not Them, taking places where they should naturally be overwhelmingly represented as it was in their daddy's day. And the white grievance industry constantly whispering/shouting that it's Not Fair. I think everybody consistently underestimates how important it is to see a reflection of yourself in media. When they hear #OscarsSoWhite they hear a threat. There's a fundamental insecurity everyone feels for a host of reasons in these fun-packed times, but their insecurity is being focused and channeled into fear and very specific hate.
Excellent diagnosis, and I hadn’t thought of it that way before. The very well-intentioned goal of diagnosing and fixing a problem becomes, in this case, a subtle, perverse victim-blaming.
As you note, the tribal hate is its own reward. It’s about identity and Our Group hating Their Group. Trying to mediate and fix it is as pointless as an Auburn fan saying, “What did we do to make Bama fans hate us, and how can we get them to like us?”
Trump will pulverize DeSantis in a debate. DeSantis has done terrible things in Florida, but Trump will attack him for being an Ivy League product, not rich enough, having the wrong kind of foreign name, etc., etc. Does DeSantis have the years of deflecting criticism that Trump does? Can he handle a Trump Gish-gallop as well as Biden, who had a hard enough time but at last always looked like a nice guy being assaulted, something DeSantis will never be.
I've heard DeSantis was deer in headlights when Charlie Crist was needling him in a debate about whether he'd serve out his full term or run for president. Can't be bothered to look the clip up myself, but if you can be flummoxed by Charlie Crist, good luck taking on Trump.
Yep. DeSantis is not (to date, anyway) nimble. And since you can't forcefully counter-attack Trump in a primary debate, you need to be able to dodge and weave. So far, DeSantis hasn't shown any ability to do so, especially under pressure.
The only possible reason I will watch a Republican debate is to see what galaxy brain strategy DeSantis tries to counter Trump. He'll think he's ready, but he has no idea.
I know I won't get my wish, but I'm REALLY hoping for Michael Dukakis: Look down at your shoes, shake your head slowly from side to side and say "It's unfortunate that my opponent has chosen to engage in the politics of personal destruction."
Could be, tho I think DeSantis will have enough lead time to rehearse some sparkly comebacks. Just one time I'd love to hear someone (anyone!) respond to one of T's stupid insults by saying "Is that all you got, sedition-boy?"
The most effective line against Trump in a debate would be what George C. Scott says to Paul Newman in The Hustler: "You're a loser, Eddie" said in exactly that tone of voice, watch the movie and rehearse it Ron.
But NO Republican can say it straight to Trump, because that would mean acknowledging that Biden won and das ist verboten in Republican circles. By making "The election was stolen!" a core Republican loyalty test, Trump protected himself from the one attack that would hurt. Funny how, as a complete idiot, he keeps doing clever things like that.
Trump isn't stupid. He's ignorant and incurious, yes, but not flat-out stupid. He's quite cunning and as self-aggrandizement is the only thing he values, he's very skillful about cultivating and retaining it.
I wonder if he didn't just stumble into this one. Of course he was never gonna admit he lost, but then by keeping the lie going for so long, he's tied his wannabe opponents in knots. Did he plan that or is it just a happy accident? I'd go with the second, because "plan ahead" isn't his strong suit.
Nikki Haley was able to note in her CPAC speech that Republicans had lost the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections but there was ONE particular election in there that she couldn't say more about. Trump must have gotten a chuckle about that, especially because he happily admitted he lost the popular vote in 2016, and even bragged about it, how his clever strategy got him the White House because he focused on getting the electoral votes instead.
Yes, that's true. The popular vote was stolen too, also he was really clever in his chosen strategy of not winning the popular vote so he could win the electoral vote instead. I didn't say his lies were consistent.
Also, sounds just like the Democrats, they can pull up a few million fake votes with a snap of their fingers, but they forgot to put 30,000 of them in Wisconsin.
DeSantis's pitch is that unlike Trump, he delivers retribution via government while Trump only promises it. He thinks being a more efficient bully will seal the deal, or at least it's worth a shot. If he flattens Trump so much the sweeter, otherwise he gracefully bows out and waits for 2028, either way Trump is a spent force he can buy off with a pardon. But I agree with you, why vote for New Trump when Classic Trump is right there?
Elsewhere I call Trump the Avatar of white grievance. The foundation of that role is getting off vicious insults, the demonstration of the bully's superiority. Trump is the Fred Astaire of that, making it look effortless. But it's that performance that matters most to his base. Pogroms and punishment are nice, but it's most important to inhabit the role, and that's where DeSantis utterly fails. He's smart enough to know this, and he's going to work his ass off to create a persona as a tough bully, but what I've seen so far is a bad acting job. He'll never get that Trump deliberately dumbs down his rambling speech (what I call his just a mook from Queens act) to help the base identify with him. DeSantis thinks the superior attitude that comes naturally to him will work the same magic, but it won't.
Years ago, a woman was hired at my workplace and given the office next to mine. She was young, pretty, charismatic, and, apparently, a master at stealth self-aggrandizement.
“I hear she’s great.”
“I hear she’s done some amazing things.”
“Wow we were lucky to get her.”
Months passed, and she was rarely around.
“I heard there was a death in her family.”
“She’s been ill – I hope she’s alright!”
“Oh no, maybe she’s not happy here!”
While everyone waited eagerly to see all that talent in action, she made it known that the assignments she was being given were not worth her efforts. In well under a year, and without having produced a thing, she got herself promoted and transferred to the city of her choosing, working on a plum account that people waited years to get on.
Ron DeSantis reminds me of this woman. Lots of talk about his singular genius, not so much evidence. He seems completely manufactured. Haven’t we been through this before with Paul Ryan, Scott Walker, and all the other New Faces of Conservatism?
I actually believe Paul Ryan is waiting for the right moment to re-emerge as the conservative savior. He pokes his head out now and then to test the fumes, which are still too noxious. His strategy of getting out before all the real shit was revealed seemed pretty good, but he didn't count on the squishy malleability of the MAGA brain.
I think these guys live in a bubble of sycophants who are always telling them they're presidential material. And Ryan probably spends a lot of time hanging with rich guys for whom he's always going to be a Smart Young Man With a Bright Future.
Six year old me watching 7 Faces of Dr. Lao from the back of the family's Olds Vista Cruiser had a perfectly magical experience. I haven't watched it since because I know I'd be disappointed.
Ol' CW (Cock Womble*) Cooke is one of
those guys that makes a good living being wrong all the time. Bastard.
Good column!
* this is evidently one word. His parents obviously didn't know.
Do you suppose that Cooke (& the NR editorial board) are just trying to replay their rope-a-dope from 2016? See how many suckers fall for it this time (bringing their subscription $$), just to flop over & expose their throat to whatever slavering monster the GOP ends up nominating next year?
It seems these chuds also have their part to play in pretending the election is a horse race on their side...
The best part of the school conservatives whining about Trump the pols emulating is that policy-wise there’s essentially 100% overlap. Donnie ran in 2016 as what our exceptional media characterized as a populist. Once in office, he implemented approximately no populist policies. Just saying.
In other words, even when the old school conservatives are correct about something they’re still wrong. Or to paraphrase Kari Lake, they’re suffused with small flaccid dick energy.
As for the face of the Trump-dominated GOP, it’s that image LGM uses of the couple wearing Trump 2016 “Fuck Your Feelings” T shirts and grinning like they know something.
"Once in office, he implemented approximately no populist policies. "
Don't you remember all the mooks cheering wildly when he proclaimed the Jubilee for billionaires? How soon they forget...<insert tongue-clucking noise here>
Trump scores populist points just by being against the dismantlement of MeeMaw's entitlements. Funny how other Republicans keep handing him the opportunity to be the ONE Republican who won't cut your Social Security.
Not that I should take your comment too seriously, but… Were Donnie to be blessed with a GOP-majority congress and they gifted with a bill ending Social Security and Medicare, odds are he’d sign it. Which is exactly how the Republicans managed to get a tax cut bill that was that impossibility: unpopular.
Funny/not funny thing about Trump is — Kari Lake again — all his big Dick energy is limited to his mouth and unhinged spewing. Dunno whether selling out the nation counts as big dick energy…
Yeah. Trump doesn't want to actually do the work of being President now any more than he did when he actually had the job. This run is all about his ego and staying out of prison.
Some commentator on my TV said that the two leading Republican candidates for President are the two meanest candidates, and I think that's right (at least it explains what Nikki Haley isn't bringing to the table).
Mean is what Republican voters want, what they've always wanted, and nobody does it better than Trump, although DeSantis sure works hard at it. One advantage for DeSantis: He's in office right now, so he can be mean to people in real time, instead of just bragging about how mean he's been in the past or promising to be mean in the future. "Hey, what immigrants have you kidnapped lately?"
Forgive me, but compared to those two, the only thing Nikki Haley isn't bringing to the table is a penis. She may not be as loud as them, but she's got meanness down. Among a bunch of other things, she's viciously anti-union, and thanks to her "leadership", South Carolina still hasn't accepted the Medicaid Expansion.
Good point, "mean" is a core Republican value, they can all brag about the widows and orphans they've starved. But look at how Trump takes it to a whole new level, at CPAC he said "I am your retribution", how many weeks before he just goes with "You will see your enemies driven before you and hear the lamentations of der wimmen."
She's no Trump, that's for sure. No one, including DeSantis, can beat Trump for sheer depraved vulgarity (a reminder, it's the 5000 -short- fingers of Mr. T.). But here's Haley:
"In a quick jab at DeSantis, she criticized the Florida Governor’s “Don’t Say Gay” bill, which bans the teaching of gender identity and sexual orientation before the fourth grade. “I’m sorry,” Haley said. “I don’t think that goes far enough.”"
From here, ICYMI, a reminder at just how awful Haley is:
Wow. And that "I'm sorry" says a lot, Republican women politicians have to walk a fine line (in heels, no less!). Be just as mean as the boys, but the b-word is always there ready to be used if you don't get it JUST right. Just ask Carly Fiorina.
As for DeSantis, he's now basically "Rope. Tree. Journalist. Some assembly required" in legislative form, gonna be hard to top that, but I'm sure the others will try.
The last bunch I would consider calling "conservatives" was my dad's generation: Depression and WWII survivors who believed they could advance by merit and hated the elites who" had it easy," like FDR and JFK. Starting with William Fucking Buckley it's been all pseudoconservatism since and although you could be a conservative who thought birth control and even abortion was your own business back in Dad's day, now you have to hate all the right people to be in the Republican Party at any level above uninformed voter who votes Republican because "Eisenhower and Lincoln." It's so easy to discomfit the remaining Republicans who deny racism/homophobia/xenophobia - just ask who they voted for and be prepared with a short list of the terrible things those politicians have supported.
Rand's glorification of selfishness and contempt for ordinary people certainly made things worse. However, like Trump, she found a willing audience who just wanted permission to be assholes.
In your dad's day, conservative meant you dressed up nice and took the family to the nice Episcopalian or Presbyterian church on Sunday, but heaven forbid you mention Jaysus the rest of the week.
Close. My dad was an atheist and my mom took us to the Episcopal church. Religion was never discussed at home, I assume by their mutual agreement. Dad was a bit anti-semitic but he also didn't think much of most Christians per se. Yet after my moms died and he moved to assisted living, his best friend there was a retired bishop. A true conservative to the end, he judged people individually. (He had to admit, in sorrow, that Reagan was pretty demented his second term and should've stepped down. Hated Nixon and Agnew, liars and cheats. Died before Trump could annihilate what remaining respect he had for the Republican Party.)
Thanks for the still from Kind Hearts and Coronets! All-time classic.
I think I was in my mid 20s when I decided to buy an issue of The New Republic and one of the National Review, just to see what they were like. This was back around 1980. The New Republic was tolerable, mostly a lot of high-toned blather. But the National Review was rant after rant after rant, without the slightest care for logic or reasoned thought. Conservatism, eh?
Now, and for a few years, my only question to conservatives has been a variant of "what the fuck has conservatism ever done through all of human history to advance the health, safety, and happiness of the average person?" In my mind conservatives are are like the Gorn tracking Kirk in that Star Trek episode: "I weary of the chase. Wait for me. I shall be merciful and quick." Fuck that shit.
One of my favorite things on CSpan is guys calling in who are furious at all things liberal, whose whole argument is "Look at them democrats, they have nothing to be for, they're just anti-Trump, TDS."
'Cause, yeah, all they are is anti-everyone. The cruelty and hatred are there to accomplish actual societal and policy goals, but honest to fuck I think they'd do it anyway just for the sick thrill.
Right, "they have nothing to be for" while simultaneously bankrupting us with all their big-spending socialist welfare programs. Schroedinger's Democrat.
Jell-O salad is fine as long as there is no celery in it! That is technically true for all salads, no celery!!! Fruit is good in Jell-O celery is almost worse than death.
You know, my Dad has made a reservation for me on an Alaska cruise this August, and, thinking of NatReview, I'm suddenly worried it might be a conservative cruise! ZOMFG two weeks up to my eyeballs in wingnuts!
Enjoy, if possible. Do some salmon fishing if you can. There's a bookstore in Juneau where I found a copy of Upton Sinclair's "Oil!" which is the book that "There Will Be Blood" is based on.
"let his once-taut sneer grow slack"
Is it just me, or are my sneers a little soft lately?
You still got it Bern
Let's get you to the aesthetician, luv
<Blubbering voice> "But, but...Roy says I look fine!" <wails>
2 marks for the whole damn thing.
Nobody should put much stock in my political predictions as I have a very mediocre track record – I’m only right maybe 50% of the time. But my instinct for the 2024 GOP nomination is Trump will win.
All of the establishment punditry (of which National Review is only one, and a diminished one at that) who are lining up behind DeSantis ignore some pretty important things about him, and about the GOP base. DeSantis is without charisma, he’s short, and he isn’t very nimble when he’s unscripted. He’s also hamstrung because like ALL of the potential GOP candidates, he has to walk the tightrope of not criticizing Trump too forcefully so as not to alienate TFG’s fervent supporters, while also trying to explain why he himself is the better choice. DeSantis *HAS* so far been successful with his transphobic and racist agenda, but I’m not sure he fully grasps how absolutely feral much of the GOP base has become.
Trump understands where the base is at – he was a major player in encouraging them to go there, after all -- and his message is full-on retribution: a restoration of white, male, Christian, heteronormative dominance just like DeSantis pitches, BUT with the important addition of retaliation and eradication of the “enemy.” I think on an emotional level that wins him the primaries.
Of course, I also think it will be pure poison in the general election. But as things stand, I think it gets Trump the nomination. And the GOP establishment, including the conservative pundits at National Review, KNOW Trump is poison in the general, which is why they are all lining up behind DeSantis. But it’s the primary voters who will decide, as we saw in 2016.
"I’m not sure he fully grasps how absolutely feral much of the GOP base has become."
Yeah.
The thing Trump does is make people angry enough to kill, and also provides the motive. As long as there's enough o'them inarticulated-rage-appliers-with-guns out there, Trump will enjoy the ride...
Totally for no apparent reason earlier this morning, NOFX's "The Idiots Are Taking Over" was running through my head, particularly the lines
"Someone dropped a steamer in the gene pool
Now angry mob mentality's no longer the exception, it's the rule"
Like I said, no reason, no reason at all.
"Why do they hate us so much?" has become a cottage industry among liberal academics, and - as academics are wont to do - there's much searching for "root causes." Katherine Cramer, a Political Science Prof. at UW-Madison even got a much-read book out of it, interviewing rural Wisconsinites on why they hate "the M&M's" (not the insufficiently hot ones Tucker hates, they mean Madison and Milwaukee).
But what all this root-cause-searching misses is they hate us because they're TOLD to hate us. It's simple bigotry, and yes, racism too, but it's also just tradition, like how everyone in Wisconsin hates the FIBS. Stop looking for root causes, hate is its own reward. I'd hope at this point nobody's asking, "Gosh, wonder what the Jews did that made so many people hate them?"
Very true. Additionally, while I don’t like anti-Trump conservatives, one of them, Tom Nichols, has done Twitter threads where I think he touches on something important. Specifically, he talks about the successful MAGA types: the realtors, middle managers, tradesman, franchisees, etc. who are often earning six figure incomes and have a comfortable life, but feel a combination of restless boredom because their lives aren’t exciting, and/or feel like their asses aren’t being sufficiently kissed.
Just a stew of entitled resentment and ennui looking for an outlet. Rightwing politics tells them they are correct to feel this way, that other, lesser people (Blacks, immigrants, LGBTQ, uppity feminists) are demanding special privileges and unearned recognition. I think he’s onto something with this theory.
Yeah, I think was academics get wrong, not being generally angry people themselves, is that it FEELS GOOD to be angry. These folks aren't dragged into anger with great reluctance, forced to be angry by the outrageous behavior of the people they hate. They relish it, constantly look for more opportunities to be angry - and I know because I've felt that pull myself.
Yep. The heroic victim role, and the angry outrage it inspires, is tantalizingly attractive.
"When you are accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression."
MAGA is an identity. It's branding. Somebody I know likes to wear golf clothing from exclusive courses and Audi logo merch. It's how he tells the world what tribe he's from. (The Asshole one.)
So, so much ink has been spilled about rural conservatives feeling neglected because the urban liberals "don't give them any respect". Like liberals are sitting around all day in their crowded, dirty, grimy, gridlocked and polluted ivory towers going "Hey! Who should we disrespect today?".
Yo, rurals, I got news for you! We TOO struggle with the daily challenges of living in what *used* to be fondly referred to as the "Land of the free, home of the brave(tm)" (GTFO, MAGA!) and we don't have a GD spare moment to contemplate their tender fee-fees. If life is so bad in American Ruralistan, how the hell do YOU have time to bitch about what us urbans might be thinking?
Carry on, carry on.
...my wayweird son.
There'll be peace when you are done.
Now, let's be fair, if some NY Times reporter comes to the diner in your rural Wisconsin town and asks "What do you have against people in Madison and Milwaukee?" you can't be honest and say "I hate them as my father hated them, and his father before him, just as I hate Bears fans and drivers with Illinois plates on I-39." So you've got to have some answer (and "the Blacks" better not be part of it, thanks.) So this is what you get. "I'm sure they're thinkin' some stuff about us, yeah, that's it!"
Nice local knowledge.
It’s not just the urbans, rural conservatives hate the liberals next door even more. My rural town is in the middle of a dispute over the establishment of zoning, and the “natives” — some of whom are landed farm families going back generations — bitterly resent educated “newcomers”. You can live here 50 years but if you’re educated, no matter how humble your origins, you’ll be held in contempt, and assumed to be a classist snob. I am really starting to hate these people right back.
I don't think a lack of respect is the driver for them, though they're told that enough and they believe it. I keep thinking of that weird chant "Jews will not replace us" at that big Nazi rally. I think they feel shut out and replaced in popular culture. They look at movies and television, they look at the Oscar's and Grammys, they listen to any music not country (and even some of that, see Lil Nas X), and they see an army of not Them, taking places where they should naturally be overwhelmingly represented as it was in their daddy's day. And the white grievance industry constantly whispering/shouting that it's Not Fair. I think everybody consistently underestimates how important it is to see a reflection of yourself in media. When they hear #OscarsSoWhite they hear a threat. There's a fundamental insecurity everyone feels for a host of reasons in these fun-packed times, but their insecurity is being focused and channeled into fear and very specific hate.
Excellent diagnosis, and I hadn’t thought of it that way before. The very well-intentioned goal of diagnosing and fixing a problem becomes, in this case, a subtle, perverse victim-blaming.
As you note, the tribal hate is its own reward. It’s about identity and Our Group hating Their Group. Trying to mediate and fix it is as pointless as an Auburn fan saying, “What did we do to make Bama fans hate us, and how can we get them to like us?”
Trump will pulverize DeSantis in a debate. DeSantis has done terrible things in Florida, but Trump will attack him for being an Ivy League product, not rich enough, having the wrong kind of foreign name, etc., etc. Does DeSantis have the years of deflecting criticism that Trump does? Can he handle a Trump Gish-gallop as well as Biden, who had a hard enough time but at last always looked like a nice guy being assaulted, something DeSantis will never be.
100%. DeSantis will be a deer in the headlights when Trump comes for him.
I've heard DeSantis was deer in headlights when Charlie Crist was needling him in a debate about whether he'd serve out his full term or run for president. Can't be bothered to look the clip up myself, but if you can be flummoxed by Charlie Crist, good luck taking on Trump.
Yep. DeSantis is not (to date, anyway) nimble. And since you can't forcefully counter-attack Trump in a primary debate, you need to be able to dodge and weave. So far, DeSantis hasn't shown any ability to do so, especially under pressure.
"If you've been flummoxed by Charlie Crist" is my new preface to whatever clever insult I'll apply to some goppie mook next time I get a chance.
It's a devastating slur, isn't it? LOL
The only possible reason I will watch a Republican debate is to see what galaxy brain strategy DeSantis tries to counter Trump. He'll think he's ready, but he has no idea.
I know I won't get my wish, but I'm REALLY hoping for Michael Dukakis: Look down at your shoes, shake your head slowly from side to side and say "It's unfortunate that my opponent has chosen to engage in the politics of personal destruction."
Could be, tho I think DeSantis will have enough lead time to rehearse some sparkly comebacks. Just one time I'd love to hear someone (anyone!) respond to one of T's stupid insults by saying "Is that all you got, sedition-boy?"
The most effective line against Trump in a debate would be what George C. Scott says to Paul Newman in The Hustler: "You're a loser, Eddie" said in exactly that tone of voice, watch the movie and rehearse it Ron.
But NO Republican can say it straight to Trump, because that would mean acknowledging that Biden won and das ist verboten in Republican circles. By making "The election was stolen!" a core Republican loyalty test, Trump protected himself from the one attack that would hurt. Funny how, as a complete idiot, he keeps doing clever things like that.
And mistakes were made.
Trump isn't stupid. He's ignorant and incurious, yes, but not flat-out stupid. He's quite cunning and as self-aggrandizement is the only thing he values, he's very skillful about cultivating and retaining it.
I wonder if he didn't just stumble into this one. Of course he was never gonna admit he lost, but then by keeping the lie going for so long, he's tied his wannabe opponents in knots. Did he plan that or is it just a happy accident? I'd go with the second, because "plan ahead" isn't his strong suit.
Nikki Haley was able to note in her CPAC speech that Republicans had lost the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections but there was ONE particular election in there that she couldn't say more about. Trump must have gotten a chuckle about that, especially because he happily admitted he lost the popular vote in 2016, and even bragged about it, how his clever strategy got him the White House because he focused on getting the electoral votes instead.
because he happily admitted he lost the popular vote in 2016
Didn't he start by claiming that a bunch of the votes for Clinton in CA were fake/illegal votes? Checking, yes he did https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/27/politics/donald-trump-voter-fraud-popular-vote/index.html
Yes, that's true. The popular vote was stolen too, also he was really clever in his chosen strategy of not winning the popular vote so he could win the electoral vote instead. I didn't say his lies were consistent.
Also, sounds just like the Democrats, they can pull up a few million fake votes with a snap of their fingers, but they forgot to put 30,000 of them in Wisconsin.
If only he were more curious, like a magpie collecting shiny objects!
No words for how much I want to see that.
Yes and DeS sounds like a 13-year old who's barely begun puberty.
If there's an asshole contest ( and it's pretty obvious the Republican presidential primary is exactly that)
Trump is going to win .
DeSantis's pitch is that unlike Trump, he delivers retribution via government while Trump only promises it. He thinks being a more efficient bully will seal the deal, or at least it's worth a shot. If he flattens Trump so much the sweeter, otherwise he gracefully bows out and waits for 2028, either way Trump is a spent force he can buy off with a pardon. But I agree with you, why vote for New Trump when Classic Trump is right there?
New Trump is bad enough, but Newt Rump is going too far!
Not sure it's even about delivering. It may be just who gets off the most vicious insults on the teevee haw haw.
Elsewhere I call Trump the Avatar of white grievance. The foundation of that role is getting off vicious insults, the demonstration of the bully's superiority. Trump is the Fred Astaire of that, making it look effortless. But it's that performance that matters most to his base. Pogroms and punishment are nice, but it's most important to inhabit the role, and that's where DeSantis utterly fails. He's smart enough to know this, and he's going to work his ass off to create a persona as a tough bully, but what I've seen so far is a bad acting job. He'll never get that Trump deliberately dumbs down his rambling speech (what I call his just a mook from Queens act) to help the base identify with him. DeSantis thinks the superior attitude that comes naturally to him will work the same magic, but it won't.
Yes. The Malevolent Duck will be going "Please heil" a la Jeb.
Years ago, a woman was hired at my workplace and given the office next to mine. She was young, pretty, charismatic, and, apparently, a master at stealth self-aggrandizement.
“I hear she’s great.”
“I hear she’s done some amazing things.”
“Wow we were lucky to get her.”
Months passed, and she was rarely around.
“I heard there was a death in her family.”
“She’s been ill – I hope she’s alright!”
“Oh no, maybe she’s not happy here!”
While everyone waited eagerly to see all that talent in action, she made it known that the assignments she was being given were not worth her efforts. In well under a year, and without having produced a thing, she got herself promoted and transferred to the city of her choosing, working on a plum account that people waited years to get on.
Ron DeSantis reminds me of this woman. Lots of talk about his singular genius, not so much evidence. He seems completely manufactured. Haven’t we been through this before with Paul Ryan, Scott Walker, and all the other New Faces of Conservatism?
Out here in the wilds of southwest Ohio we talk about folks falling in shit and coming out smelling like a rose.
Oh, Scott Walker, he's gonna make a BIG comeback, just you wait!
I actually believe Paul Ryan is waiting for the right moment to re-emerge as the conservative savior. He pokes his head out now and then to test the fumes, which are still too noxious. His strategy of getting out before all the real shit was revealed seemed pretty good, but he didn't count on the squishy malleability of the MAGA brain.
I think these guys live in a bubble of sycophants who are always telling them they're presidential material. And Ryan probably spends a lot of time hanging with rich guys for whom he's always going to be a Smart Young Man With a Bright Future.
Some of you will recognize the tune (h/t Sundaystyle for joggling my brain):
You say you want full-on retribution
Well you know we all want to rule the world
You say you want a final solution
Well you know we all want to rule the world
But when you talk about sedition
Don’t you know that you can count me in
Don’t you know it’s gonna be
Alt.Right
Don’t you know it’s gonna be
Alt.Right
Don’t you know it’s gonna be
Alt.Right
“Number Nine…”
Six year old me watching 7 Faces of Dr. Lao from the back of the family's Olds Vista Cruiser had a perfectly magical experience. I haven't watched it since because I know I'd be disappointed.
Ol' CW (Cock Womble*) Cooke is one of
those guys that makes a good living being wrong all the time. Bastard.
Good column!
* this is evidently one word. His parents obviously didn't know.
2 marks for the word.
I'll chuckle all day.
How about the 5,000 Fingers of Dr. T? That's a lot more -- and the credentials appear to be the same...
Is this another aesthetician thing?
Dr. Seuss wrote Dr. T.
Strange film. It was drastically cut before it was released. Gained quite a following with restoration on video.
Just what I need. One more must-watch...
It's got quite a following.
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the-5000-fingers-of-dr-t
I don't know if I've ever seen it. I know all about it.
Any woman who's been in a Bonwit's changing room with him can tell you about the 5000 fingers of Mr. T.
Oof, and DAMN!
Afterwards, I worried people might think that was aimed at Laurence Tureaud, and then I felt bad about that.
You old softie!
Or backstage at the Miss Teen USA Pageant.
An oofer twofer!
The 5000 SHORT fingers...
Do you suppose that Cooke (& the NR editorial board) are just trying to replay their rope-a-dope from 2016? See how many suckers fall for it this time (bringing their subscription $$), just to flop over & expose their throat to whatever slavering monster the GOP ends up nominating next year?
It seems these chuds also have their part to play in pretending the election is a horse race on their side...
And one wonders as one is wont, what the back room deals with the jockeyboys are like.
"Nice trumped-up election you got there...would be a shame..."
The best part of the school conservatives whining about Trump the pols emulating is that policy-wise there’s essentially 100% overlap. Donnie ran in 2016 as what our exceptional media characterized as a populist. Once in office, he implemented approximately no populist policies. Just saying.
In other words, even when the old school conservatives are correct about something they’re still wrong. Or to paraphrase Kari Lake, they’re suffused with small flaccid dick energy.
As for the face of the Trump-dominated GOP, it’s that image LGM uses of the couple wearing Trump 2016 “Fuck Your Feelings” T shirts and grinning like they know something.
"Once in office, he implemented approximately no populist policies. "
Don't you remember all the mooks cheering wildly when he proclaimed the Jubilee for billionaires? How soon they forget...<insert tongue-clucking noise here>
Haha.
The masochism of the Republican voter…
Trump scores populist points just by being against the dismantlement of MeeMaw's entitlements. Funny how other Republicans keep handing him the opportunity to be the ONE Republican who won't cut your Social Security.
Not that I should take your comment too seriously, but… Were Donnie to be blessed with a GOP-majority congress and they gifted with a bill ending Social Security and Medicare, odds are he’d sign it. Which is exactly how the Republicans managed to get a tax cut bill that was that impossibility: unpopular.
Funny/not funny thing about Trump is — Kari Lake again — all his big Dick energy is limited to his mouth and unhinged spewing. Dunno whether selling out the nation counts as big dick energy…
My assumption is he would do whatever involves the least amount of effort, because he truly does not give a shit.
Yeah. Trump doesn't want to actually do the work of being President now any more than he did when he actually had the job. This run is all about his ego and staying out of prison.
Steve’s mostly correct but grifting and selling out the nation takes focus if not actual work. And surely flushing documents down the toilet is work.
That's why you have that Meadows boy.
"Dunno whether selling out the nation counts as big dick energy…"
The "energy" flippity-flops based on what his owner, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, wants him to do.
Christ, they STILL think he's a populist, along with Elon "Yes, Mister Catturd" Musk.
Some commentator on my TV said that the two leading Republican candidates for President are the two meanest candidates, and I think that's right (at least it explains what Nikki Haley isn't bringing to the table).
Mean is what Republican voters want, what they've always wanted, and nobody does it better than Trump, although DeSantis sure works hard at it. One advantage for DeSantis: He's in office right now, so he can be mean to people in real time, instead of just bragging about how mean he's been in the past or promising to be mean in the future. "Hey, what immigrants have you kidnapped lately?"
Reverting to the...is what you, Mr MathsGuy, forgot to point out, leaving it to me, your C- student.*
*I'll allow as how it is statistically possible you set me up...
"Serving up one order of mean, the deviance is standard."
MY deviance, on the other order, is LEGEND!
Wasn't that a Denzel movie?
Forgive me, but compared to those two, the only thing Nikki Haley isn't bringing to the table is a penis. She may not be as loud as them, but she's got meanness down. Among a bunch of other things, she's viciously anti-union, and thanks to her "leadership", South Carolina still hasn't accepted the Medicaid Expansion.
Good point, "mean" is a core Republican value, they can all brag about the widows and orphans they've starved. But look at how Trump takes it to a whole new level, at CPAC he said "I am your retribution", how many weeks before he just goes with "You will see your enemies driven before you and hear the lamentations of der wimmen."
She's no Trump, that's for sure. No one, including DeSantis, can beat Trump for sheer depraved vulgarity (a reminder, it's the 5000 -short- fingers of Mr. T.). But here's Haley:
"In a quick jab at DeSantis, she criticized the Florida Governor’s “Don’t Say Gay” bill, which bans the teaching of gender identity and sexual orientation before the fourth grade. “I’m sorry,” Haley said. “I don’t think that goes far enough.”"
From here, ICYMI, a reminder at just how awful Haley is:
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-political-scene/why-is-nikki-haley-running-for-president
Wow. And that "I'm sorry" says a lot, Republican women politicians have to walk a fine line (in heels, no less!). Be just as mean as the boys, but the b-word is always there ready to be used if you don't get it JUST right. Just ask Carly Fiorina.
If you think I'm gonna ask Carly anything...Hard. Pass.
As for DeSantis, he's now basically "Rope. Tree. Journalist. Some assembly required" in legislative form, gonna be hard to top that, but I'm sure the others will try.
What, you're telling me it ISN'T "a great day in South Carolina"?
The last bunch I would consider calling "conservatives" was my dad's generation: Depression and WWII survivors who believed they could advance by merit and hated the elites who" had it easy," like FDR and JFK. Starting with William Fucking Buckley it's been all pseudoconservatism since and although you could be a conservative who thought birth control and even abortion was your own business back in Dad's day, now you have to hate all the right people to be in the Republican Party at any level above uninformed voter who votes Republican because "Eisenhower and Lincoln." It's so easy to discomfit the remaining Republicans who deny racism/homophobia/xenophobia - just ask who they voted for and be prepared with a short list of the terrible things those politicians have supported.
I blame Ayn Rand. In fact, I blame her for everything. Easy peasy lemon squeezy!
Rand's glorification of selfishness and contempt for ordinary people certainly made things worse. However, like Trump, she found a willing audience who just wanted permission to be assholes.
In your dad's day, conservative meant you dressed up nice and took the family to the nice Episcopalian or Presbyterian church on Sunday, but heaven forbid you mention Jaysus the rest of the week.
Close. My dad was an atheist and my mom took us to the Episcopal church. Religion was never discussed at home, I assume by their mutual agreement. Dad was a bit anti-semitic but he also didn't think much of most Christians per se. Yet after my moms died and he moved to assisted living, his best friend there was a retired bishop. A true conservative to the end, he judged people individually. (He had to admit, in sorrow, that Reagan was pretty demented his second term and should've stepped down. Hated Nixon and Agnew, liars and cheats. Died before Trump could annihilate what remaining respect he had for the Republican Party.)
The National Review stands athwart history and shouts "stop the slide into irrelevance".
It's a slippery slope AND an uphill battle at the same time!
Thanks for the still from Kind Hearts and Coronets! All-time classic.
I think I was in my mid 20s when I decided to buy an issue of The New Republic and one of the National Review, just to see what they were like. This was back around 1980. The New Republic was tolerable, mostly a lot of high-toned blather. But the National Review was rant after rant after rant, without the slightest care for logic or reasoned thought. Conservatism, eh?
And I, late to the right-hand-wanker-elite scrutiny beat, never bothered to figure out which TNR was which...
"Sold another one! And at the full news stand price, too!" was heard in the NR offices one day back in 1980.
Ha!
Now, and for a few years, my only question to conservatives has been a variant of "what the fuck has conservatism ever done through all of human history to advance the health, safety, and happiness of the average person?" In my mind conservatives are are like the Gorn tracking Kirk in that Star Trek episode: "I weary of the chase. Wait for me. I shall be merciful and quick." Fuck that shit.
NYT is in the same boat, so to speak. Literally no one I know subscribes anymore.
One of my favorite things on CSpan is guys calling in who are furious at all things liberal, whose whole argument is "Look at them democrats, they have nothing to be for, they're just anti-Trump, TDS."
'Cause, yeah, all they are is anti-everyone. The cruelty and hatred are there to accomplish actual societal and policy goals, but honest to fuck I think they'd do it anyway just for the sick thrill.
Right, "they have nothing to be for" while simultaneously bankrupting us with all their big-spending socialist welfare programs. Schroedinger's Democrat.
And the catering to The Woke Mob!
As elected spokesman for the Woke Mob, I have a message for the caterers: NO MORE JELLO SALAD, THANKS.
Jell-O salad is fine as long as there is no celery in it! That is technically true for all salads, no celery!!! Fruit is good in Jell-O celery is almost worse than death.
Catty!
Today I learned a new word: fleer
Thank you, Mister Ed Rosso! (The “Ed” stands for “education”!)
Bubblegum of Champions!
They used to be a baseball card company in rival to Topps
"in search of a conservatism-with-good-taste that no longer exists"
Who now would believe there ever was a thing pushed called "compassionate conservativism"?
For people who thought Reagan went TOO FAR.
"OK, we'll go back to calling ketchup a condiment."
Hey, now, I thought they were against handing out condiments in school!
They got there eventually. Had to give a brief nod to polite society first. Slippery slope. Dippery dope.
You know, my Dad has made a reservation for me on an Alaska cruise this August, and, thinking of NatReview, I'm suddenly worried it might be a conservative cruise! ZOMFG two weeks up to my eyeballs in wingnuts!
Enjoy, if possible. Do some salmon fishing if you can. There's a bookstore in Juneau where I found a copy of Upton Sinclair's "Oil!" which is the book that "There Will Be Blood" is based on.
Cool. The ship docks at Juneau for the day, but it's a Sunday. Hopefully it's still there and open on weekends.