I think a lot of people, including me, developed unrealistic expectations based on Russia's failures and Ukraine's successes in the first year of the war. Now we're being brought back to Earth. But I think it's absurd to say, "Oh, Russia's so much bigger, Ukraine can't win", how much bigger were we than Vietnam?
As I said elsewhere, the people who shouted us into war after war with "we must never appease dictators!" now just, you know, let the dictator have his gains and stay quiet, no point in rocking the boat, America First.
Putin has indicated on multiple occasions that he wants to reconstitute the Soviet Union. That would also include the Baltic States, Poland, and East Germany.
The Balkans, Hungary (which shares a border with Ukraine), Czechia, Slovakia, and Austria would be in direct line of seizure. Many of those countries are NATO members. Ukraine is not just fighting for itself.
And as others have remarked above, Putin's military is now badly depleted. Morale is down, many Russian families don't want their kids going to this meat grinder and are starting to resist.... And I don't buy that we did nothing to provoke or send mixed signals about Putin's initial incursion in the first place. The Clinton people and Biden people were super clumsy, I mean Biden did not draw a red line until after the fact. Putin may talk aspirationally about reconstituting the Soviet Union but again, this requires him to go nuclear against a NATO state. That's a lot different than looking to recoup separatist regions. I have Ukrainian friends who would hate me for saying this and I totally respect and admire their valor and tenacity. It is indeed a beautiful resistance and still... From a planetary perspective, can we really afford all these wars. What's the climate fallout from this, from Gaza, how many people are going to get cancer from the DU shells or get blown up by land mines. People above are citing past wars in Afghanistan as a success? Iraq? Vietnam? I'm not sure the planet can afford wars like this...I know Putin or Hamas or Netanyahu don't give a fuck what I think but still, I don't see the endgame
I understand he's thinking the hell with the CCCP, he wants to go for the OG Russian Empire, and presenting it as a holy crusade against "Western decadence" (LGBTQ). Which is why the idiot Christian conservatives love him.
Cox is trying to save her life in addition to her uterus.
The GOP's position on more weapons to Ukraine, on one hand makes sense; the endgame is assuredly going to be some kind of ugly. But their position has to questioned re whether it's a sincere position or just posturing. Ukraine and Israel have been windfalls for our exceptional munitions businesses and I'm not sure they want to see that tap turned off sooner than it must.
And as ever with Donnie, the question needs to be asked how much what he does aligns with what the party wants. which leads to another problem, but one I have no interest in addressing other than noting: The establishment media's new thing of considering the possibility of his being a dictator ignores that overlap. And speaking of dictatorial behavior, there's SCOTGOP.
Ohhhh, looks like I sort of (accidentally!) came full circle. I'm back to Dobbs ad Cox.
I hate the military-industrial complex more than most folks, but you can't tell whether a particular war is justified from the fact that someone's getting rich off it. Somebody gets rich off every war, in this country the two biggest boons to the weapons-makers were the Civil war and WWII.
Not much pundit bullshit shocks me anymore, but Cooper’s “so we suspend democracy for a while, no biggie” was one of them. Talk about whistling past the cemetery (presuming it doesn’t come from some deeper place of cynicism). It reminds me of those who said after the 2020 election, “look, let Trump rant and rave about stolen elections, what’s he going to do about it, really? He’ll go quietly when it comes right down to it.”
It’s like these people think democracy on its own isn’t merely a concept, but is some kind or rock solid edifice with a will of its own that will ultimately repel all usurpers. But democracy is only an idea that institutions, policies, and people make feasible. Change the institutions, create different policies, and draft a different cast of characters to work in them and put them forward, and *POOF* no more democracy.
I clicked on the link to see who the fuck this William Cooper guy is, that he should think giving democracy a lil' vacay is nothing to get worked-up about. All I could find is "author of How America Works … And Why It Doesn’t" a book I will not be reading.
Clearly, he's done his own research and feels it qualifies him to tell the rest of us to just chill. All I can think of is the saying "god grant me the self-confidence of a mediocre white man."
1. I didn’t have justification in mind at all FWIW. The closest to a justifiable war at present would be Ukraine. Besides trying to repel an invasion they’re also fighting domination by the invader.
2. Of course war brings windfalls to various interests; not exclusively arms makers. The difference is that til recently it was pretty much just a matter of theft of one kind or another. Of late, the MICsatisfied inflating costs but (IMO) involvement in
As I was trying to say: Of late, the industrial part of the MICC isn’t satisfied with just inflating costs but (IMO) are actually involved in dictating policy. Hence, for example, that may be why we’re enabling Ukraine’s military response instead of putting much effort into a diplomatic resolution.
I don't see any basis for bargaining. What could anyone give Russia that would cause them to give up the war, except the eastern half of Ukraine?
I suppose there could come a point when the Russians have been forced from every part of the country except Crimea, and then there's some negotiation to decide the fate of Crimea (and we'd have to wonder about how committed Ukraine's allies would be to continue the fight under those circumstances).
Russia’s not going to be repelled militarily, specially if November brings us fPOTUS and/or a Republican congress . Hope I’m wrong...
Shortly after the invasion, I read somewhere (maybe Adam Tooze, maybe Sam Greene) that the invasion wasn’t geopolitical but an effort to get Ukraine into Russia’s version of the EU. Explains the repeated attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure. Related to that, I think Russian forces are less inept and more holding back so they don’t get a Pyrrhic victory by winning an economic basket case having won by destroying the parts of the nation that they want.
Well, I don't get how anyone can see now how the war will end. Wars are unpredictable. I can't imagine anyone looking at the Vietnam war in 1967 and thinking the US would lose. Or looking at Afghanistan and thinking the US would end up fleeing the country in the most humiliating fashion. Are we the only country that loses wars unexpectedly?
People really want to know what the future holds, and "I don't know" is such an unsatisfying answer. Who will win the presidential election? Definitely Trump. Or Biden. Probably not Cornell West. You can see why CNN doesn't hire me for on-air punditry.
The Kate Cox situation is absolutely heartbreaking, and I’m in awe of her courage. From the first she had dozens of offers (likely some from Dem politicians looking for cred) to fly expense-free to a blue state to get the medical termination she needs. But she chose to fight, and tried to establish a precedent for others. True courage.
Aside from the personal tragedy of Cox’s situation, it would be political malpractice if the Dems are not pulling Ken Paxton’s and Texas Supreme Court quotes for ads in 2024, and every Dem should be prepared to say some version of this on the stump: “You never believed them when they talked about medical exceptions, and why should you? You know they’ve been working tirelessly for decades to end the ability of women to control what happens to their own bodies. Now you have proof, in their own words and actions, that medical exceptions are a lie. They don’t care about life, that’s another lie. They didn’t care about Kate Cox’s life. They didn’t care about her family’s lives. They didn’t care about the lives of future children she may no longer be able to have. They care about control, about controlling YOUR life. They want to control every womb in America.”
Yeah, yeah, but first, those ads. The only ones these days seeking to draw blood are from the Lincoln Project. I would pay SundayStyle to let me help her write some.
It’s really dispiriting that the guys with the long history of Republican rat-fucking are the ones most consistently and effectively going for the GOP jugular. I’m not sure what Dems are so afraid of, it’s not like the legacy media treats them well NOW. “White House discovers cure for cancer, here’s why that’s bad news for Biden” is only a slight exaggeration.
I don't see ads on tv. And no, I've not seen any for Biden. I do the Lincoln Project ads sneering at and mocking Trump, on Twitter. One could ask, Who do they think they're trying to appeal to?
It's a nice living, the consulting fees are good even if the ads don't win a single vote (and I think someone did research on the last election that showed they had almost no effect, maybe absolutely no effect.)
With the exception of Sherrod Brown, the Ohio Democrats seem desperate to run people with no personality. I have watched it over and over again. It, of course, doesn't help that all the media in the state is in the pocket of the Republicans (or is that visa versa?).
Gah. Tim Ryan. A frequent visitor to Morning Joe, his main line of attack on Vance there (can't speak to anywhere else) was that Vance is lazy, and hasn't visited much of the state. Typical Democrat, with an unerring instinct to go straight for the capillaries.
I couldn’t agree with you more. Part of the problem is everyone is focusing on a “particular” tree and they can’t see the forest. We have a select few Jewish hedge-fund billionaires calling for the heads of elite universities. Don’t they realize they are contributing to the troupes that Jews control the media and banking system? Do they realize that while they are outraged that a small group of protesters are calling for a Jewish genocide, that an actual genocide is taking place against women and children?
“The widespread fear that Trump will actually be a dictator, however, is misplaced. If Trump wins the 2024 election, American democracy might be suspended, at least temporarily. But it won’t be replaced by a dictatorship, which is a coherent and recognizable system of government.”--William Cooper
And herein lies the rub! Guys like Cooper want us to believe that we should take Trump figuratively, not literally, yet Trump has the Heritage Foundation (right-wing think tank) ready to replace 50,000 civil servants that know how to keep our government functioning with loyalists and we shouldn’t take this seriously?
We have the Federal Society and Family Research Council ready to replace all impartial judges with hand-picked religious zealots and we shouldn’t take this seriously? SCOTUS has already gutted the Civil Rights Act and allowed unlimited dark money in politics. They’ve also proven to be a bunch of corrupt kleptocrats in the pockets of conservative billionaires and non-profit conservative organizations.
Additionally, we have more than half of the Republican caucus in Congress as members of the Freedom Caucus, with a speaker that believes dinosaur’s roamed the earth with man, and we shouldn’t take this seriously?
We have all of Trump’s sycophants and acolytes telling us that he will weaponize the DOJ, FBI, IRS and military to do his nefarious bidding, and we shouldn’t take this seriously?
He’s already tried to usurp an election, and he failed. Yet, if you are a student of American history, you’d know that the religious fanatics could lose every battle, and in the end, they win the war; simply by mere exhaustion and attrition. How do you think Johnson became speaker and SCOTUS is currently filled with Federalist Society judges?
If Trump wins, we will pull out of NATO. Ukraine will fall and Poland and Moldova will be next on Putin’s menu. Western alliances will crumble, and we will suffer an economic depression as our global economic system is uprooted, and thrown into chaos.
And Trump will have his Reichstag moment so he can implement Martial Law. It will most likely occur at the southern border. Perhaps a Hamas terrorist attack that in response to Biden’s support for Israel.
Either way, Trump will weaponize the military and intelligence services for his own nefarious purposes and turn them on the American people; especially his enemies, while the MSM and democrats are too busy fighting over insignificant issues; like whether college campuses are too woke!
"...they are outraged that a small group of protesters are calling for a Jewish genocide"
Except that small groups of protesters aren't calling for genocide. What's happening is that large groups of protesters are chanting "Intifada" and Elise Stafanik is choosing to characterize that as genocide.
"We shouldn't be spending billions on Ukraine! We could use that money [to help poor single mothers right here!/to send to Mexico to stop the immigrants!/to rebuild our infrastructure!/to help feed poor families!/to improve our schools!/(other fantasy project)]."
I hear this from my sister all the time. But when I suggest we actually spend money on ANY of those things, well, that's just no gonna happen. Because why waste taxpayer money on any of those things?
That classic bait and switch is as tiresome as it is obvious. It reminds me of the similar game played by some on “our” side when they complain that some proposal (Green New Deal, college loan forgiveness, “Defund the Police” slogan, whatever) goes too far, and instead we should be working towards [imaginary policy that hadn’t been proposed and would never pass]—which they would also oppose. It’s Three Card Monte for politics!
USA, with more cash sloshing around than any other nation in history, can't afford anything other than shareholder payouts and drowning CEO's in trillion dollar bills.
Aren't there surveys that show that most Americans WILDLY over-estimate the amount we spend on foreign aid in a year? Think it's like a third of the budget, when it's more like a third of one percent? My response would be a pie chart, but we all know how much the voters hate those.
Look, this money is some tricky stuff, you really need a lot of exposure to it before you can learn to handle it properly, giving even small amounts to those who have not previously had much much of it can have catastrophic consequences. Really, safest to keep it all in the hands of the rich, who have had generations and generations of training in proper money-spending.
I’m going to outsource most of my dictatorship fears to the Liberal Redneck (an ad begins 2:50; and he returns to praise Taylor Swift, and slam Martha Blackburn as a puppy eating monster at, appropriately, 4:20)
Money quote. “it’s like a babysitter tried and failed to abduct your child, and you went and rehired her because her replacement takes too many naps..”
In too many small, and not just southern, towns, democracy is not really embraced because they are functionally (and generally Baptist/evangelical) police states.
The idiot attack on clueless University presidents, not a group I generally feel much sympathy for, and the manufacturing of outrages to hide the outrageous conduct of the Gaza War or anti abortion Judges, e.g. shows a media wanting horse races and avoiding the real awful facts...
Way too many White Americans hate "democracy" because they believe themselves to be superior beings to non-Whites, and "democracy" has worked well for keeping them up there until recently. That's why they want to toss it overboard. And they will vote for Trump, Putin, or whoever will promise to keep the dusky hordes subjugated (or exterminated).
Now THAT'S a statement even the MAGAs would define as saying the quiet part out loud. You can tell by how loudly they protest when it's even hinted at -- hit dogs, etc.
Well done. One of the things I loved about "The Crown" was that it made the Duke of Windsor's traitorous perfidy crystal clear, and it was gratifying to see his beloved Lillibet reject and isolate him for it.
Churchill saw it coming, DeGaulle saw it coming, and both were exiled, figuratively or literally, for it. (Also DeGaulle, having escaped to England with only a couple hundred supporters, was condemned to death by Vichy.) The historical models for the present moment in American politics are crystal clear, and anyone who thinks Trump is less than a lethal threat to our democracy is a fool — and a collaborator.
The Sorrow and the Pity, Marcel Ophul's documentary about the Nazi occupation of France, goes into the attitudes of the French upper classes, who welcomed the Nazis as a bulwark against communism. "Better Hitler than Leon Blum" was the way they put it (Blum was a French Socialist, and Prime Minister before the occupation.) Afterwards, all was forgotten, women who slept with German soldiers were publicly beaten and shamed, but the rich people who provided much greater support to the Nazis were allowed to keep all their wealth and lands, and there was no public examination of their role until Ophul's film in 1969.
Not relevant here to mention that Leon Blum was not only a socialist but a Jew. The French are historically no better than the English in certain attitudes.
Here in Fairhope, Alabama, we are facing an attempt to restrict access to books in the public library. But don't say books will be "banned," only that they will be reclassified in such a way that the audience for whom they are written (specifically, teens) will not have access. Some folks, being conflict-adverse, think that the problem will go away if we accede to some small measure of censorship. Those of us who have been paying attention know that this is egregious bullshit. Resistance does not assure a positive outcome, but lack of it guarantees that you are well and truly fucked.
I’m often reminded of the scene in MST3K’s Red Zone Cuba where the characters are besieged by gunfire, but the actors look bland and unaware, like they’re going to a particularly dull picnic. Crow, as they remain oblivious to the gunfire: “Just ignore them. Rise above it.”
Too many people on our side think things with Republicans will naturally take care of themselves, and only have real energy for fighting their left flank.
A film from the dark, hateful, plodding œuvre of Coleman Francis. Don’t forget the depressing diner that the highway bypassed, “the legendary singing Buick!”, and Crow’s interminable “AAAAAaaaaaaaaa…” after they throw the old guy down the well. Also: Pitchblende! There’s riches on my land!
Please don’t confuse me for Tom Friedman in a taxi. A few weeks back I was chatting with an African-American small business owner in a low income neighborhood in Jackson Mississippi and out of the blue he mentioned that aid to Ukraine made him angry because the money could be better spent in places like Jackson. So their message apparently getting through much better than I would have thought. The Dems should learn from that and ask why we are sending so much “aid” to a country with a highly effective military that is in no danger of losing and has a higher standard of living than we have. Of course some would say the question is anti-Semitic, but fuck them.
As I understand it, money allotted for Ukraine defense, for example, takes the form of existing stockpiled munitions sent to Ukraine, meaning new munitions are built for US stockpile to replace the munitions sent, meaning more jobs created here in the US as a result of supporting Ukraine defense.
He should know by now that America can do more than one thing at a time. And it isn't Joe Biden keeping aid from getting to his neighborhood, it's Tate Reeves and his fellow Republicans. Who stole a gubernatorial election--again.
"...he mentioned that aid to Ukraine made him angry because the money could be better spent in places like Jackson."
Read somewhere that Mississippi got a big chunk of change from the infrastructure bill, just like all the states, and the Governor and state legislature are doing everything possible to make sure not one thin dime gets to Jackson, whose water system is in a state of collapse. Hell, you could drop the entire GDP of China on Mississippi and Whites would be out hoovering up every last banknote in a furious effort to prevent any of it from getting to the darker-skinned.
Some googling found this, Biden admin directing $600 million to Jackson for water-system repairs, apparently going over the heads of the Governor and state legislature. Somehow, he was able to do this even though we were spending money on Ukraine.
while it is probably true some of that money would do Jackson a world of good, there is ni chance that it would ever be sent to Jackson and even if it were sent, Reeves would figure out a way to divert it to his priorities which clearly aren't Jackson
Hinds County has *two* county seats, one Black (Jackson) and one White (Raymond). That calls for a dedication to racism not even President Biden can resolve.
But there is some truth to the idea that a country the size of Ukraine can never truly triumph over Russia. I mean, the only way is if we fight Russia to total military defeat, not just defeat in Ukraine, but decimate Russia's military capability overall, because Putin will not stop otherwise. So we keep throwing money to Ukraine and the bombing continues, and Putin keeps trading oil for missiles and mercenaries. Both sides are now using depleted uranium shells, so the world's "Bread Basket" is being defiled and polluted for generations to come. When/how does this war end? You can call it defeatism, or blame MAGA jerks like Vance for being selfish isolationists, but what's the endgame? I don't buy that if we don't keep financing Ukraine, that we will have to fight Putin ourselves when he invades a NATO country. He knows that could go nuclear. Why not cede some of the Russian controlled areas, negotiate access to the Sea of Azov and ports for Ukraine, and rebuild military to resist any further incursions? And push for a putsch of Putin? I mean, he's not forever, right? How can we strengthen the resistance within Russia?
<<What is notable is that Cooper thinks if “American democracy” is “suspended,” it might be “temporary.”>>
Hey, it's not without precedent. Look to history: Hitler's reign was only temporary, for example, and Germany is an economic powerhouse today. There were only a few bumps along the way!
"I think there may be a connection in the change between the old way and the new way in the utter and complete exposure of both Republicanism and its religious offshoot, evangelicalism, as total grifts and fakes..."
There are times when I feel like they're not even trying anymore. Specifically, not trying to formulate an argument (or even a set of talking-points) that might actually be plausible to non-insane people.
Case in point: If you want to attack the college students protesting for Palestine on our college campuses, isn't the obvious attack that they're dupes? They mean well, these kids, and they see people dying on their YouTubes, so they want a ceasefire, not understanding that the ceasefire helps Hamas, which wants to kill MORE people (please don't @ me, not my opinion, thanks) I feel like any Republican politician of past decades could have pulled this off easily, but is that the line of attack they're following today? No, of course not, it's the ludicrous claim that a hundred students marching through the quad waving signs saying "Ceasefire Now" are ANTISEMITES who are for GENOCIDE.
Sometimes I feel like an old man from a bygone era who just doesn't understand how things are done today, but I still hold, foolishly perhaps, to the idea that politics is about persuasion, about getting other people to adopt your point of view as their own. And yet it's clear Republicans have completely left this behind, everything has to be amped-up to the highest level of aggression to excite the right-wing loons cheering from the crowd right in front of them, with either no awareness or no concern that said loons are not a representative sample of the American population.
Why do they do it? Have they got some card up their sleeve, that they no longer need to persuade normal, non-wingnut folks? The last few elections certainly don't indicate that, but they persist just the same.
If Dukakis was running today [shudder] and they were doing the Willie Horton ad, it wouldn't be "Dukakis is a silly liberal who doesn't understand criminals are dangerous", it would be "Dukakis WANTED that White woman to be raped by that Black Buck, because he wants a MONGREL America!" I mean, sure, lots of folks got that from the original, as subtext, but they don't do subtext any more.
Someone coined the phrase "attention-based economy" and I think that fits here. It's a competition for attention, to stand out from the other crazies, which, of course, requires EVEN MORE crazy. And I get how that's a good strategy for a YouTube influencer, but it's a weird approach to take when you're one of only two major political parties, because political parties have traditionally focused on winning more votes by broadening their appeal.
I would say "big lie", which has become little more than a phrase, but still applies.
Why appeal to reason when you can appeal to emotion? It's all optics! Explaining doesn't motivate people the way fear and paranoia do.
After all, the folks who're convinced campuses are full of antisemites yelling for GENOCIDE!!! are the same ones who buy the Woke Company Child Grooming conspiracy, the Trans Mobs Have Terrorized Us All Into Silence conspiracy, and the Democrats Are Satanic Marxist Pedos Who Live Off The Blood Of Abducted Children conspiracy. So the bar is pretty fucking low.
Yes, those are exactly the kind of nuts who would buy into "College students want GENOCIDE!", but this is the part I stumble over: If you're trying to win elections, how does it benefit you to get the loons who already believe 5 crazy things to believe ONE MORE crazy thing? Wouldn't there be more benefit in putting out a less-crazy message that might pull in some people who are not already inmates of the asylum? Is it that "trying to win elections" is just a thing they don't do any more, or do they have some trick that they think will allow them to win even though they just keep going back to the same Well of Crazy over and over again?
I don't think Trump and co. do the same sort of cost-benefit analysis you are. It may be a simplistic explanation, but I think that the non-base people who see Trump firing that kind of thing off are, for the most part, going to brush it off because "He got us our judges", and also because they figure if he does in fact do the dictatorship, then what happens will probably not affect them and the people it does affect, well, they deserved it anyway.
Right, "base" can mean different things, from "people who habitually vote Republican without giving it a single thought" to "People who go to Trump rallies, the craziest of the crazy." Put those two together and it might be enough to win, but I've never seen Trump (or really any Republican today) make any effort to reach out beyond that. Which is not how successful political parties have ever functioned. Reagan had "Reagan Democrats", Nixon had his "Southern Strategy" to catch white folks who had been voting D for generations, Trump's attitude is basically, "If you don't already love me, you're vermin."
The differences from then to now could be accounted for by the different media landscape, and everyone having the internet in their hand all the time, filled with stuff designed to amplify their grievances, and Trump has always been a big grievance guy. So a lot of people relate to that. "Very unfair..." (It raises my hackles just writing that phrase, because I can hear his goddamned voice.) You're right, I think, in that he's not really trying to add to his coalition, but it could be that he just assumes enough people can relate to the sentiments he puts out there , and the the rest of the GOP has put enough barriers up to prevent the other side from voting (the "They don't deserve to be a part of our society/country" mindset they all have in action) that he should coast through. His boundless ego tells him that he deserves this, and that's good enough.
Here in Madison, I've had a chance (won't say "I have had the pleasure...") of interacting with some Republican state legislators and getting to understand them better. And these people live in a VERY small world, mostly composed of Republican car dealers and other Chamber of Commerce types, and it is their absolute, bedrock conviction that they represent the majority of Americans. And this, like a thousand other unexamined assumptions they hold, is absolutely unshakeable, no matter how many elections they lose. Their opponents are just a handful of freaks (and some "coastal elites", of course) but The American People stand solidly with them, and always will. It would never occur to them to ask whether culture-war bullshit, for example, is gaining them votes or losing them votes. OF COURSE it's a big winner for the Republicans, everybody I talk to in my district is behind me on this, 100%!
This is also why Trump has had such great success in convincing 70% or more of Republican voters that the election was stolen. They really can't imagine any other explanation for why their guy lost.
Turning it up to 11 works in their world, and the Republican Party is living in its own world now, believing they can drag us along into it if they clap hard enough. Committing to Trump means committing to his version of the Power of Positive Thinking, and they are Committed to Trump. The plucky band of Never-Trump Resisters are just waiting for the tornado funnel to move on so they can pick up the pieces and put their old perfectly legal plan to end democracy back on track.
"Republican Party is living in its own world now..."
Look at Trump saying he will be a dictator (But just on day one! Because that's how dictators work!) Gets a big laugh and applause from the crowd, so then he repeats it in New York at some gathering of right-wing youth, you can expect it to become part of his standard stump speech. Now, back on Planet Earth, is there a single person who would say, "Well, I didn't like Trump before, but now that he says he's going to be a dictator, sign me up!" Just push the buttons of the hundred or so crazies sitting right in front of you, who cares what the normies think? Who needs them?
He is always talking to his base, even the rare occasions he faces any other type of audience. Making being a dictator a joke tickles them because it stokes their fantasies of revenge and mocks the liberals powerless (in their eyes) to stop him. It's a closed system. Figuring out how those unicorn "swing" voters react to the madness is a coin toss. Is it just a crazy plot twist in Season 2, or do they realize it's not a scripted reality show but reality itself.
They get to point and laugh at people like me, at how we're being "Hysterical, like a bunch of silly women!" which is many, many LULZ for them. About the swingers: So disengaged they won't be looking into any of this until probably October of '24, and then probably LATE October. My one consolation: What will they find then? Does this past year's worth of news that they've all been ignoring hold much that's good for Trump? Imagine you've been in a cave for a year, and then you step outside and ask, "So... Donald Trump, what's up with him?" Where do I start?
But with voter suppression and cheating, you've still got to get the thing within stealing distance. Wisconsin's been the target of lots of voter suppression, why wasn't that enough to win the Governor or Attorney General or the Supreme Court? "Try to put forward candidates and a platform that can get you to 48%, then steal the remaining 2%" is how it's done, old-school, but seems like they've forgotten the first part.
Their national floor is like 45% of 60% of the voting eligible. They don't need that many people confused about what they will do or disappointed in the D candidate to get to a winning level. Particularly in lower turnout elections. They got enough votes to win the Senate seat in 2022
Yeah, that's the key question, what's the floor for them? And what I'm asking is whether the floor requires any maintenance? Suppose lots of women abandon the Republicans post-Dobbs, do they need to make that up somewhere else? They act like they're guaranteed 50% just by being one of the only two major parties, I've never seen the slightest hint that they're concerned at all about any erosion of support, while Democrats live in a state of constant anxiety: "Trump's support is up among Texas Hispanics! WE'RE DOOMED."
Is this the earliest historical record of trolling?
I think a lot of people, including me, developed unrealistic expectations based on Russia's failures and Ukraine's successes in the first year of the war. Now we're being brought back to Earth. But I think it's absurd to say, "Oh, Russia's so much bigger, Ukraine can't win", how much bigger were we than Vietnam?
Winter. Land mines.
But when I played the whole war out on Call of Duty, I had the thing wrapped up on no time!
As a counterpoint, JD Vance: "C'mon, it's just the Sudetenland, who cares, amirite?"
As I said elsewhere, the people who shouted us into war after war with "we must never appease dictators!" now just, you know, let the dictator have his gains and stay quiet, no point in rocking the boat, America First.
Putin has indicated on multiple occasions that he wants to reconstitute the Soviet Union. That would also include the Baltic States, Poland, and East Germany.
The Balkans, Hungary (which shares a border with Ukraine), Czechia, Slovakia, and Austria would be in direct line of seizure. Many of those countries are NATO members. Ukraine is not just fighting for itself.
And as others have remarked above, Putin's military is now badly depleted. Morale is down, many Russian families don't want their kids going to this meat grinder and are starting to resist.... And I don't buy that we did nothing to provoke or send mixed signals about Putin's initial incursion in the first place. The Clinton people and Biden people were super clumsy, I mean Biden did not draw a red line until after the fact. Putin may talk aspirationally about reconstituting the Soviet Union but again, this requires him to go nuclear against a NATO state. That's a lot different than looking to recoup separatist regions. I have Ukrainian friends who would hate me for saying this and I totally respect and admire their valor and tenacity. It is indeed a beautiful resistance and still... From a planetary perspective, can we really afford all these wars. What's the climate fallout from this, from Gaza, how many people are going to get cancer from the DU shells or get blown up by land mines. People above are citing past wars in Afghanistan as a success? Iraq? Vietnam? I'm not sure the planet can afford wars like this...I know Putin or Hamas or Netanyahu don't give a fuck what I think but still, I don't see the endgame
I understand he's thinking the hell with the CCCP, he wants to go for the OG Russian Empire, and presenting it as a holy crusade against "Western decadence" (LGBTQ). Which is why the idiot Christian conservatives love him.
A few minor points...
Cox is trying to save her life in addition to her uterus.
The GOP's position on more weapons to Ukraine, on one hand makes sense; the endgame is assuredly going to be some kind of ugly. But their position has to questioned re whether it's a sincere position or just posturing. Ukraine and Israel have been windfalls for our exceptional munitions businesses and I'm not sure they want to see that tap turned off sooner than it must.
And as ever with Donnie, the question needs to be asked how much what he does aligns with what the party wants. which leads to another problem, but one I have no interest in addressing other than noting: The establishment media's new thing of considering the possibility of his being a dictator ignores that overlap. And speaking of dictatorial behavior, there's SCOTGOP.
Ohhhh, looks like I sort of (accidentally!) came full circle. I'm back to Dobbs ad Cox.
I hate the military-industrial complex more than most folks, but you can't tell whether a particular war is justified from the fact that someone's getting rich off it. Somebody gets rich off every war, in this country the two biggest boons to the weapons-makers were the Civil war and WWII.
I think in WW2 they had an office to try to minimize excess profits by the war industries
Why... that's SOCIALISM.
Not much pundit bullshit shocks me anymore, but Cooper’s “so we suspend democracy for a while, no biggie” was one of them. Talk about whistling past the cemetery (presuming it doesn’t come from some deeper place of cynicism). It reminds me of those who said after the 2020 election, “look, let Trump rant and rave about stolen elections, what’s he going to do about it, really? He’ll go quietly when it comes right down to it.”
It’s like these people think democracy on its own isn’t merely a concept, but is some kind or rock solid edifice with a will of its own that will ultimately repel all usurpers. But democracy is only an idea that institutions, policies, and people make feasible. Change the institutions, create different policies, and draft a different cast of characters to work in them and put them forward, and *POOF* no more democracy.
I clicked on the link to see who the fuck this William Cooper guy is, that he should think giving democracy a lil' vacay is nothing to get worked-up about. All I could find is "author of How America Works … And Why It Doesn’t" a book I will not be reading.
Clearly, he's done his own research and feels it qualifies him to tell the rest of us to just chill. All I can think of is the saying "god grant me the self-confidence of a mediocre white man."
But... but... he wrote a BOOK. Like with pages, and a cover, and everything!
"Naptime for Democracy" by William Cooper.
"Take your blankie and your juice box and just have a little lie down. Democracy will be back before you know it."
(Meanwhile the fascists are sealing up the windows and doors, and getting ready to turn on the gas.)
Naptime for Democracy in America,
Playtime for fascists and cranks,
Just curl up in a cozy place,
Leave everything to the Master Race
"Bedtime for Democracy " by the Dead Kennedys was better (I assume, I'm not reading his book).
Stukas Over Disneyland was jauntier.
1. I didn’t have justification in mind at all FWIW. The closest to a justifiable war at present would be Ukraine. Besides trying to repel an invasion they’re also fighting domination by the invader.
2. Of course war brings windfalls to various interests; not exclusively arms makers. The difference is that til recently it was pretty much just a matter of theft of one kind or another. Of late, the MICsatisfied inflating costs but (IMO) involvement in
(Hit the wrong thing.)
As I was trying to say: Of late, the industrial part of the MICC isn’t satisfied with just inflating costs but (IMO) are actually involved in dictating policy. Hence, for example, that may be why we’re enabling Ukraine’s military response instead of putting much effort into a diplomatic resolution.
But ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I don't see any basis for bargaining. What could anyone give Russia that would cause them to give up the war, except the eastern half of Ukraine?
I suppose there could come a point when the Russians have been forced from every part of the country except Crimea, and then there's some negotiation to decide the fate of Crimea (and we'd have to wonder about how committed Ukraine's allies would be to continue the fight under those circumstances).
Russia’s not going to be repelled militarily, specially if November brings us fPOTUS and/or a Republican congress . Hope I’m wrong...
Shortly after the invasion, I read somewhere (maybe Adam Tooze, maybe Sam Greene) that the invasion wasn’t geopolitical but an effort to get Ukraine into Russia’s version of the EU. Explains the repeated attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure. Related to that, I think Russian forces are less inept and more holding back so they don’t get a Pyrrhic victory by winning an economic basket case having won by destroying the parts of the nation that they want.
Time will tell.
Well, I don't get how anyone can see now how the war will end. Wars are unpredictable. I can't imagine anyone looking at the Vietnam war in 1967 and thinking the US would lose. Or looking at Afghanistan and thinking the US would end up fleeing the country in the most humiliating fashion. Are we the only country that loses wars unexpectedly?
People really want to know what the future holds, and "I don't know" is such an unsatisfying answer. Who will win the presidential election? Definitely Trump. Or Biden. Probably not Cornell West. You can see why CNN doesn't hire me for on-air punditry.
Periodic reminder that in truth Ukraine has been at war with Russia since 2014, two American Presidencies ago.
Roofies For Democracy
The Cosby Plan.
Name your kid Cosby, they have to spend the rest of their life telling people their pronouns.
You'd like it though!
Sales must be disappointing indeed if you're pitching readers on an individual basis.
The Kate Cox situation is absolutely heartbreaking, and I’m in awe of her courage. From the first she had dozens of offers (likely some from Dem politicians looking for cred) to fly expense-free to a blue state to get the medical termination she needs. But she chose to fight, and tried to establish a precedent for others. True courage.
Aside from the personal tragedy of Cox’s situation, it would be political malpractice if the Dems are not pulling Ken Paxton’s and Texas Supreme Court quotes for ads in 2024, and every Dem should be prepared to say some version of this on the stump: “You never believed them when they talked about medical exceptions, and why should you? You know they’ve been working tirelessly for decades to end the ability of women to control what happens to their own bodies. Now you have proof, in their own words and actions, that medical exceptions are a lie. They don’t care about life, that’s another lie. They didn’t care about Kate Cox’s life. They didn’t care about her family’s lives. They didn’t care about the lives of future children she may no longer be able to have. They care about control, about controlling YOUR life. They want to control every womb in America.”
I nominate you to write Biden's acceptance speech at next year's Democratic Convention.
My line is open but so far, crickets from the White House. LMAO.
Yeah, yeah, but first, those ads. The only ones these days seeking to draw blood are from the Lincoln Project. I would pay SundayStyle to let me help her write some.
It’s really dispiriting that the guys with the long history of Republican rat-fucking are the ones most consistently and effectively going for the GOP jugular. I’m not sure what Dems are so afraid of, it’s not like the legacy media treats them well NOW. “White House discovers cure for cancer, here’s why that’s bad news for Biden” is only a slight exaggeration.
Have you seen ads for Biden? I don't think I have. What do they say?
I don't see ads on tv. And no, I've not seen any for Biden. I do the Lincoln Project ads sneering at and mocking Trump, on Twitter. One could ask, Who do they think they're trying to appeal to?
It's a nice living, the consulting fees are good even if the ads don't win a single vote (and I think someone did research on the last election that showed they had almost no effect, maybe absolutely no effect.)
Aren't the LP ads supposed to piss off Trump0 and push him into doing even more stupid stuff?
If Tim Ryan had run as a Proud Biden Democrat we wouldn't be listening to that asshole Vance.
Good article !
With the exception of Sherrod Brown, the Ohio Democrats seem desperate to run people with no personality. I have watched it over and over again. It, of course, doesn't help that all the media in the state is in the pocket of the Republicans (or is that visa versa?).
Gah. Tim Ryan. A frequent visitor to Morning Joe, his main line of attack on Vance there (can't speak to anywhere else) was that Vance is lazy, and hasn't visited much of the state. Typical Democrat, with an unerring instinct to go straight for the capillaries.
"go straight for the capillaries"
2 marks!
Thanks! But not mine originally, probably stolen from Molly Ivins (I'm keeping the Marks anyway.)
Molly can have her 2 marks when she gets back.
We always keep a place set at the table, awaiting her return.
Roy, you are 100% spot on. Mic drop!!!!
I couldn’t agree with you more. Part of the problem is everyone is focusing on a “particular” tree and they can’t see the forest. We have a select few Jewish hedge-fund billionaires calling for the heads of elite universities. Don’t they realize they are contributing to the troupes that Jews control the media and banking system? Do they realize that while they are outraged that a small group of protesters are calling for a Jewish genocide, that an actual genocide is taking place against women and children?
“The widespread fear that Trump will actually be a dictator, however, is misplaced. If Trump wins the 2024 election, American democracy might be suspended, at least temporarily. But it won’t be replaced by a dictatorship, which is a coherent and recognizable system of government.”--William Cooper
And herein lies the rub! Guys like Cooper want us to believe that we should take Trump figuratively, not literally, yet Trump has the Heritage Foundation (right-wing think tank) ready to replace 50,000 civil servants that know how to keep our government functioning with loyalists and we shouldn’t take this seriously?
We have the Federal Society and Family Research Council ready to replace all impartial judges with hand-picked religious zealots and we shouldn’t take this seriously? SCOTUS has already gutted the Civil Rights Act and allowed unlimited dark money in politics. They’ve also proven to be a bunch of corrupt kleptocrats in the pockets of conservative billionaires and non-profit conservative organizations.
Additionally, we have more than half of the Republican caucus in Congress as members of the Freedom Caucus, with a speaker that believes dinosaur’s roamed the earth with man, and we shouldn’t take this seriously?
We have all of Trump’s sycophants and acolytes telling us that he will weaponize the DOJ, FBI, IRS and military to do his nefarious bidding, and we shouldn’t take this seriously?
He’s already tried to usurp an election, and he failed. Yet, if you are a student of American history, you’d know that the religious fanatics could lose every battle, and in the end, they win the war; simply by mere exhaustion and attrition. How do you think Johnson became speaker and SCOTUS is currently filled with Federalist Society judges?
If Trump wins, we will pull out of NATO. Ukraine will fall and Poland and Moldova will be next on Putin’s menu. Western alliances will crumble, and we will suffer an economic depression as our global economic system is uprooted, and thrown into chaos.
And Trump will have his Reichstag moment so he can implement Martial Law. It will most likely occur at the southern border. Perhaps a Hamas terrorist attack that in response to Biden’s support for Israel.
Either way, Trump will weaponize the military and intelligence services for his own nefarious purposes and turn them on the American people; especially his enemies, while the MSM and democrats are too busy fighting over insignificant issues; like whether college campuses are too woke!
So be afraid.....:)
"...they are outraged that a small group of protesters are calling for a Jewish genocide"
Except that small groups of protesters aren't calling for genocide. What's happening is that large groups of protesters are chanting "Intifada" and Elise Stafanik is choosing to characterize that as genocide.
"There is only one solution" ??
?
Finally!!
We went through this willful ignorance bullshit twenty years ago with what "jihad" meant.
"Words have meanings, and that meaning is whatever *I* say it is. Dictionaries are tools of the Deep State!"
"The word "gay" clearly means "happy and carefree", this 1920 edition of Webster's says so!"
"We shouldn't be spending billions on Ukraine! We could use that money [to help poor single mothers right here!/to send to Mexico to stop the immigrants!/to rebuild our infrastructure!/to help feed poor families!/to improve our schools!/(other fantasy project)]."
I hear this from my sister all the time. But when I suggest we actually spend money on ANY of those things, well, that's just no gonna happen. Because why waste taxpayer money on any of those things?
That classic bait and switch is as tiresome as it is obvious. It reminds me of the similar game played by some on “our” side when they complain that some proposal (Green New Deal, college loan forgiveness, “Defund the Police” slogan, whatever) goes too far, and instead we should be working towards [imaginary policy that hadn’t been proposed and would never pass]—which they would also oppose. It’s Three Card Monte for politics!
Or, as practiced by Republicans, Three Card Monte Hall.
You REALLY don't want to see what they've got behind Door Number 3.
Yeah.
"isn’t worth even spending money on"
is the operative phrase in Roy's post.
USA, with more cash sloshing around than any other nation in history, can't afford anything other than shareholder payouts and drowning CEO's in trillion dollar bills.
Aren't there surveys that show that most Americans WILDLY over-estimate the amount we spend on foreign aid in a year? Think it's like a third of the budget, when it's more like a third of one percent? My response would be a pie chart, but we all know how much the voters hate those.
Donut chart maybe?
Meanwhile about HALF of our budget goes for the Pentagon and debt from past military spending, IIRC, and THAT'S perfectly fine.
As I like to say, they'll pour raspberry vinaigrette on that money and eat it before they'll let it go to benefit poors.
When a wealthy man wants more money, we give it to him.
When a poor person needs more money, we take money away from them to teach them a lesson.
I was sad I had no money, until I met a man who had too little money, so I took his money because fuck him.
You could put this on a t-shirt, wear it at CPAC, and get heartily congratulated.
And a job offer from Project Veritas.
CEO is open
Look, this money is some tricky stuff, you really need a lot of exposure to it before you can learn to handle it properly, giving even small amounts to those who have not previously had much much of it can have catastrophic consequences. Really, safest to keep it all in the hands of the rich, who have had generations and generations of training in proper money-spending.
Dictator for a day; King for life.
I’m going to outsource most of my dictatorship fears to the Liberal Redneck (an ad begins 2:50; and he returns to praise Taylor Swift, and slam Martha Blackburn as a puppy eating monster at, appropriately, 4:20)
https://youtu.be/5_9yo82sVPA?si=8n8Z9PCOQ635Hnur
Money quote. “it’s like a babysitter tried and failed to abduct your child, and you went and rehired her because her replacement takes too many naps..”
In too many small, and not just southern, towns, democracy is not really embraced because they are functionally (and generally Baptist/evangelical) police states.
The idiot attack on clueless University presidents, not a group I generally feel much sympathy for, and the manufacturing of outrages to hide the outrageous conduct of the Gaza War or anti abortion Judges, e.g. shows a media wanting horse races and avoiding the real awful facts...
I'll be *that* guy.
Way too many White Americans hate "democracy" because they believe themselves to be superior beings to non-Whites, and "democracy" has worked well for keeping them up there until recently. That's why they want to toss it overboard. And they will vote for Trump, Putin, or whoever will promise to keep the dusky hordes subjugated (or exterminated).
Now THAT'S a statement even the MAGAs would define as saying the quiet part out loud. You can tell by how loudly they protest when it's even hinted at -- hit dogs, etc.
Well done. One of the things I loved about "The Crown" was that it made the Duke of Windsor's traitorous perfidy crystal clear, and it was gratifying to see his beloved Lillibet reject and isolate him for it.
Churchill saw it coming, DeGaulle saw it coming, and both were exiled, figuratively or literally, for it. (Also DeGaulle, having escaped to England with only a couple hundred supporters, was condemned to death by Vichy.) The historical models for the present moment in American politics are crystal clear, and anyone who thinks Trump is less than a lethal threat to our democracy is a fool — and a collaborator.
So, you're saying we should learn from history? What kind of crazy talk is that?
The Sorrow and the Pity, Marcel Ophul's documentary about the Nazi occupation of France, goes into the attitudes of the French upper classes, who welcomed the Nazis as a bulwark against communism. "Better Hitler than Leon Blum" was the way they put it (Blum was a French Socialist, and Prime Minister before the occupation.) Afterwards, all was forgotten, women who slept with German soldiers were publicly beaten and shamed, but the rich people who provided much greater support to the Nazis were allowed to keep all their wealth and lands, and there was no public examination of their role until Ophul's film in 1969.
The Klarsfeld's were helpful in bringing the Gestapo in France to justice around that time, too
Not relevant here to mention that Leon Blum was not only a socialist but a Jew. The French are historically no better than the English in certain attitudes.
Here in Fairhope, Alabama, we are facing an attempt to restrict access to books in the public library. But don't say books will be "banned," only that they will be reclassified in such a way that the audience for whom they are written (specifically, teens) will not have access. Some folks, being conflict-adverse, think that the problem will go away if we accede to some small measure of censorship. Those of us who have been paying attention know that this is egregious bullshit. Resistance does not assure a positive outcome, but lack of it guarantees that you are well and truly fucked.
I’m often reminded of the scene in MST3K’s Red Zone Cuba where the characters are besieged by gunfire, but the actors look bland and unaware, like they’re going to a particularly dull picnic. Crow, as they remain oblivious to the gunfire: “Just ignore them. Rise above it.”
Too many people on our side think things with Republicans will naturally take care of themselves, and only have real energy for fighting their left flank.
I remember that MST3K. I just laughed out loud, thanks for the reminder. They were doing world class, Grade-A snark before snark was even a word.
A film from the dark, hateful, plodding œuvre of Coleman Francis. Don’t forget the depressing diner that the highway bypassed, “the legendary singing Buick!”, and Crow’s interminable “AAAAAaaaaaaaaa…” after they throw the old guy down the well. Also: Pitchblende! There’s riches on my land!
One of my favorite episodes. Singin' John Carradine, our doughy Curly-esque protagonist, Cherokee Jack, and Coleman Frances' incoherent filmmaking.
“This was just after he was drained of life by the succubus.” “John Carradine makes Keith Richards look dewy.”
well, tbf, Red Zone Cuba was a particularly dull Coleman Francis "epic"
The Coleman Francis Trilogy are among my MST3K faves. Dark, hateful, clumsily ambitious, shabbily midcentury… awesome.
We've got to get these awful books out of the classroom.
We've got to get these awful books out of the school library.
We've got to get these awful books out of the public library.
It's like the Pastor Niemoller quote is right in front of our goddamn FACES and we're not seeing it.
Please don’t confuse me for Tom Friedman in a taxi. A few weeks back I was chatting with an African-American small business owner in a low income neighborhood in Jackson Mississippi and out of the blue he mentioned that aid to Ukraine made him angry because the money could be better spent in places like Jackson. So their message apparently getting through much better than I would have thought. The Dems should learn from that and ask why we are sending so much “aid” to a country with a highly effective military that is in no danger of losing and has a higher standard of living than we have. Of course some would say the question is anti-Semitic, but fuck them.
As I understand it, money allotted for Ukraine defense, for example, takes the form of existing stockpiled munitions sent to Ukraine, meaning new munitions are built for US stockpile to replace the munitions sent, meaning more jobs created here in the US as a result of supporting Ukraine defense.
but a Ukrainian win is a win for Biden and we can't have that
How dare you call for GENOCIDE. Why, if you were a University President, I could have you FIRED for that!
He should know by now that America can do more than one thing at a time. And it isn't Joe Biden keeping aid from getting to his neighborhood, it's Tate Reeves and his fellow Republicans. Who stole a gubernatorial election--again.
"Tom Friedman in a taxi"
is the new "Three-handed mother of god!"
Tom Friedman in a taxi honey
You'd better be ready around half past eight...
Tomorrow night at the Derp Town Wankers’ Ball!
"...he mentioned that aid to Ukraine made him angry because the money could be better spent in places like Jackson."
Read somewhere that Mississippi got a big chunk of change from the infrastructure bill, just like all the states, and the Governor and state legislature are doing everything possible to make sure not one thin dime gets to Jackson, whose water system is in a state of collapse. Hell, you could drop the entire GDP of China on Mississippi and Whites would be out hoovering up every last banknote in a furious effort to prevent any of it from getting to the darker-skinned.
Some googling found this, Biden admin directing $600 million to Jackson for water-system repairs, apparently going over the heads of the Governor and state legislature. Somehow, he was able to do this even though we were spending money on Ukraine.
https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/2023/06/06/biden-thompson-wicker-and-henifin-speak-on-new-jackson-water-funds/70292604007/
while it is probably true some of that money would do Jackson a world of good, there is ni chance that it would ever be sent to Jackson and even if it were sent, Reeves would figure out a way to divert it to his priorities which clearly aren't Jackson
Reminder that Mississippi Republicans set up a *separate taxing and law-enforcement district* for Hinds County to keep (Black) Jackson from having any authority over (White) Hinds County suburbs: https://lpeproject.org/blog/jackson-mississippi-and-the-contested-boundaries-of-self-governance/
Hinds County has *two* county seats, one Black (Jackson) and one White (Raymond). That calls for a dedication to racism not even President Biden can resolve.
I first encountered the quote "The devil will try to convince you he's already won" in the 00s-era webcomic Fans!, but it's probably older than that.
Either way, I try to keep it in mind.
But there is some truth to the idea that a country the size of Ukraine can never truly triumph over Russia. I mean, the only way is if we fight Russia to total military defeat, not just defeat in Ukraine, but decimate Russia's military capability overall, because Putin will not stop otherwise. So we keep throwing money to Ukraine and the bombing continues, and Putin keeps trading oil for missiles and mercenaries. Both sides are now using depleted uranium shells, so the world's "Bread Basket" is being defiled and polluted for generations to come. When/how does this war end? You can call it defeatism, or blame MAGA jerks like Vance for being selfish isolationists, but what's the endgame? I don't buy that if we don't keep financing Ukraine, that we will have to fight Putin ourselves when he invades a NATO country. He knows that could go nuclear. Why not cede some of the Russian controlled areas, negotiate access to the Sea of Azov and ports for Ukraine, and rebuild military to resist any further incursions? And push for a putsch of Putin? I mean, he's not forever, right? How can we strengthen the resistance within Russia?
The endgame is the Ukrainians forcing an occupying army out of their country. Like the Afghans did. Like the Iraqis did.
<<What is notable is that Cooper thinks if “American democracy” is “suspended,” it might be “temporary.”>>
Hey, it's not without precedent. Look to history: Hitler's reign was only temporary, for example, and Germany is an economic powerhouse today. There were only a few bumps along the way!
"Oh, sure, he SAYS the Reich will last for a thousand years, but I give it ten, fifteen, tops!"
"I think there may be a connection in the change between the old way and the new way in the utter and complete exposure of both Republicanism and its religious offshoot, evangelicalism, as total grifts and fakes..."
There are times when I feel like they're not even trying anymore. Specifically, not trying to formulate an argument (or even a set of talking-points) that might actually be plausible to non-insane people.
Case in point: If you want to attack the college students protesting for Palestine on our college campuses, isn't the obvious attack that they're dupes? They mean well, these kids, and they see people dying on their YouTubes, so they want a ceasefire, not understanding that the ceasefire helps Hamas, which wants to kill MORE people (please don't @ me, not my opinion, thanks) I feel like any Republican politician of past decades could have pulled this off easily, but is that the line of attack they're following today? No, of course not, it's the ludicrous claim that a hundred students marching through the quad waving signs saying "Ceasefire Now" are ANTISEMITES who are for GENOCIDE.
Sometimes I feel like an old man from a bygone era who just doesn't understand how things are done today, but I still hold, foolishly perhaps, to the idea that politics is about persuasion, about getting other people to adopt your point of view as their own. And yet it's clear Republicans have completely left this behind, everything has to be amped-up to the highest level of aggression to excite the right-wing loons cheering from the crowd right in front of them, with either no awareness or no concern that said loons are not a representative sample of the American population.
Why do they do it? Have they got some card up their sleeve, that they no longer need to persuade normal, non-wingnut folks? The last few elections certainly don't indicate that, but they persist just the same.
They got nuthin'. So they're weaponizing that.
If Dukakis was running today [shudder] and they were doing the Willie Horton ad, it wouldn't be "Dukakis is a silly liberal who doesn't understand criminals are dangerous", it would be "Dukakis WANTED that White woman to be raped by that Black Buck, because he wants a MONGREL America!" I mean, sure, lots of folks got that from the original, as subtext, but they don't do subtext any more.
Someone coined the phrase "attention-based economy" and I think that fits here. It's a competition for attention, to stand out from the other crazies, which, of course, requires EVEN MORE crazy. And I get how that's a good strategy for a YouTube influencer, but it's a weird approach to take when you're one of only two major political parties, because political parties have traditionally focused on winning more votes by broadening their appeal.
Two-For-One Bigotry Sale: Buy One Anti-Muslim, Get One Anti-Semitic Free!
The package deal is ALWAYS worth it.
Still waiting for the college presidents to be called on the carpet for anti-Muslim hate. Wonder what the difference is? Hmm.
I suppose one could note that thus far, since 10/7 the only Americans shot because of their ethnic/religious identity are three Palestinian-Americans.
I would say "big lie", which has become little more than a phrase, but still applies.
Why appeal to reason when you can appeal to emotion? It's all optics! Explaining doesn't motivate people the way fear and paranoia do.
After all, the folks who're convinced campuses are full of antisemites yelling for GENOCIDE!!! are the same ones who buy the Woke Company Child Grooming conspiracy, the Trans Mobs Have Terrorized Us All Into Silence conspiracy, and the Democrats Are Satanic Marxist Pedos Who Live Off The Blood Of Abducted Children conspiracy. So the bar is pretty fucking low.
Yes, those are exactly the kind of nuts who would buy into "College students want GENOCIDE!", but this is the part I stumble over: If you're trying to win elections, how does it benefit you to get the loons who already believe 5 crazy things to believe ONE MORE crazy thing? Wouldn't there be more benefit in putting out a less-crazy message that might pull in some people who are not already inmates of the asylum? Is it that "trying to win elections" is just a thing they don't do any more, or do they have some trick that they think will allow them to win even though they just keep going back to the same Well of Crazy over and over again?
I don't think Trump and co. do the same sort of cost-benefit analysis you are. It may be a simplistic explanation, but I think that the non-base people who see Trump firing that kind of thing off are, for the most part, going to brush it off because "He got us our judges", and also because they figure if he does in fact do the dictatorship, then what happens will probably not affect them and the people it does affect, well, they deserved it anyway.
Right, "base" can mean different things, from "people who habitually vote Republican without giving it a single thought" to "People who go to Trump rallies, the craziest of the crazy." Put those two together and it might be enough to win, but I've never seen Trump (or really any Republican today) make any effort to reach out beyond that. Which is not how successful political parties have ever functioned. Reagan had "Reagan Democrats", Nixon had his "Southern Strategy" to catch white folks who had been voting D for generations, Trump's attitude is basically, "If you don't already love me, you're vermin."
there are the centrists awaiting another big tax cut
The differences from then to now could be accounted for by the different media landscape, and everyone having the internet in their hand all the time, filled with stuff designed to amplify their grievances, and Trump has always been a big grievance guy. So a lot of people relate to that. "Very unfair..." (It raises my hackles just writing that phrase, because I can hear his goddamned voice.) You're right, I think, in that he's not really trying to add to his coalition, but it could be that he just assumes enough people can relate to the sentiments he puts out there , and the the rest of the GOP has put enough barriers up to prevent the other side from voting (the "They don't deserve to be a part of our society/country" mindset they all have in action) that he should coast through. His boundless ego tells him that he deserves this, and that's good enough.
Here in Madison, I've had a chance (won't say "I have had the pleasure...") of interacting with some Republican state legislators and getting to understand them better. And these people live in a VERY small world, mostly composed of Republican car dealers and other Chamber of Commerce types, and it is their absolute, bedrock conviction that they represent the majority of Americans. And this, like a thousand other unexamined assumptions they hold, is absolutely unshakeable, no matter how many elections they lose. Their opponents are just a handful of freaks (and some "coastal elites", of course) but The American People stand solidly with them, and always will. It would never occur to them to ask whether culture-war bullshit, for example, is gaining them votes or losing them votes. OF COURSE it's a big winner for the Republicans, everybody I talk to in my district is behind me on this, 100%!
This is also why Trump has had such great success in convincing 70% or more of Republican voters that the election was stolen. They really can't imagine any other explanation for why their guy lost.
Turning it up to 11 works in their world, and the Republican Party is living in its own world now, believing they can drag us along into it if they clap hard enough. Committing to Trump means committing to his version of the Power of Positive Thinking, and they are Committed to Trump. The plucky band of Never-Trump Resisters are just waiting for the tornado funnel to move on so they can pick up the pieces and put their old perfectly legal plan to end democracy back on track.
"Republican Party is living in its own world now..."
Look at Trump saying he will be a dictator (But just on day one! Because that's how dictators work!) Gets a big laugh and applause from the crowd, so then he repeats it in New York at some gathering of right-wing youth, you can expect it to become part of his standard stump speech. Now, back on Planet Earth, is there a single person who would say, "Well, I didn't like Trump before, but now that he says he's going to be a dictator, sign me up!" Just push the buttons of the hundred or so crazies sitting right in front of you, who cares what the normies think? Who needs them?
He is always talking to his base, even the rare occasions he faces any other type of audience. Making being a dictator a joke tickles them because it stokes their fantasies of revenge and mocks the liberals powerless (in their eyes) to stop him. It's a closed system. Figuring out how those unicorn "swing" voters react to the madness is a coin toss. Is it just a crazy plot twist in Season 2, or do they realize it's not a scripted reality show but reality itself.
They get to point and laugh at people like me, at how we're being "Hysterical, like a bunch of silly women!" which is many, many LULZ for them. About the swingers: So disengaged they won't be looking into any of this until probably October of '24, and then probably LATE October. My one consolation: What will they find then? Does this past year's worth of news that they've all been ignoring hold much that's good for Trump? Imagine you've been in a cave for a year, and then you step outside and ask, "So... Donald Trump, what's up with him?" Where do I start?
Why do they do it? Have they got some card up their sleeve, that they no longer need to persuade normal, non-wingnut folks?
Voter suppression, normal, non-wingnut folk not believing what the wingnuts say, cheating, coups
But with voter suppression and cheating, you've still got to get the thing within stealing distance. Wisconsin's been the target of lots of voter suppression, why wasn't that enough to win the Governor or Attorney General or the Supreme Court? "Try to put forward candidates and a platform that can get you to 48%, then steal the remaining 2%" is how it's done, old-school, but seems like they've forgotten the first part.
Their national floor is like 45% of 60% of the voting eligible. They don't need that many people confused about what they will do or disappointed in the D candidate to get to a winning level. Particularly in lower turnout elections. They got enough votes to win the Senate seat in 2022
Yeah, that's the key question, what's the floor for them? And what I'm asking is whether the floor requires any maintenance? Suppose lots of women abandon the Republicans post-Dobbs, do they need to make that up somewhere else? They act like they're guaranteed 50% just by being one of the only two major parties, I've never seen the slightest hint that they're concerned at all about any erosion of support, while Democrats live in a state of constant anxiety: "Trump's support is up among Texas Hispanics! WE'RE DOOMED."